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1a. This accomplished anniversary at The MMQB, we formed out our NFL midseason predictions, seeing as post-Week 9 is the able time for a midseason amalgamation aback (a) For it to absolutely be midseason, every aggregation has to accept played eight games, and (b) As the Bible says: “He who unveils an NFL midseason address afterwards Anniversary 8 shall be mocked until the Lord’s articulation is hoarse.”

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I saw no acumen to devious from my preseason Super Bowl anticipation of Packers over Patriots. I’m not absolutely abiding what the lemming-like blitz abroad from the Packers is, because the accomplished two weeks they were arguably a alpha acknowledgment lix abroad from assault the Rams in L.A. and a active aback lix abroad from assault the Patriots in Foxboro (not to acknowledgment a Clay Matthews roughing the passer call—a alarm that wouldn’t accept been fabricated a few weeks later—from assault the Vikings instead of attached them). That’s a appealing admirable 0-2-1! They absent to D.C. in the muck aback Randall Cobb’s fingers chock-full working, and they absent in Detroit aback Mason Crosby’s legs chock-full working.

Aside from the aloft boxy luck, there are three affidavit to be bullish on the Packers: (1) Aaron Rodgers and his added advantageous knee. (2) They should be advantaged in seven of their final eight games, the barring actuality a Anniversary 12 appointment to Minnesota. Added than that, the NFL is authoritative them go to Seattle on a Thursday night because Thursday Night Football is brainless and the alliance is allegedly attractive for means to accomplish it stupider, they host Atlanta, and they biking to Chicago, which could be a boxy d if Mitchell Trubisky finds his way amid now and then.

And (3) This defense, an Achilles heel the accomplished brace seasons, is trending up. They fabricated the Rams attending abhorrent for a half, which is abundant added than anyone abroad has done. They afflicted Tom Brady, banishment the Patriots to accept to dig into their bag of ambush plays to get aback on clue Sunday night. Mike Pettine has had a abundant brace of weeks. Our Conor Orr has an SI annual allotment advancing out on how defenses are aggravating to accumulate blow with new-age offenses (and the allotment is activity to be awesome, so subscribe to the magazine if you don’t already, sheeple!). Amid the revelations is that Pettine’s two years off accept to accept been accessible in that regard, as he had some time to appointment with academy coaches and abstraction how to adverse some of the concepts that are acceptable added accustomed in the NFL. Plus, they’re adolescent on the aback end. Normally that isn’t ideal, but accede this: All the abhorrent concepts trickling up from the academy level? Adolescent guys are bigger able to handle them because that’s what they were adverse absolutely recently. (Plus, Jaire Alexander is alarming and advantageous again.)

As for the postseason? Whatever, we’ll breakdown the matchups in two months. But Aaron Rodgers’s alone Super Bowl appellation came afterwards a 10-6, wild-card approved season. So aback the Packers are acceptable Super Bowl LIII, for the account of anybody abroad at the affair try to attending surprised.

1b. If you appetite to do this affair with a abridgement of imagination, the Super Bowl favorites are the Saints, Patriots and Rams. The Vikings are a quarter-step abaft the favorites. The Chiefs (can you with a Super Bowl with a aegis this bad?) and Steelers are a half-step abaft the favorites. And the Packers, Eagles, Panthers, Chargers and Falcons are in the darkhorse group. If you’re a fan of one of the 21 added teams, you can acquisition article abroad to do with your Sundays until aing September.

2. Did you like Michael Thomas’s “cell phone” anniversary aftermost week? O.K., good. Now let me acquaint you why you’re terrible.

I don’t apperception the anticipation of it all; anniversary amateur can do his own calculus as to whether it’s account arresting the penalty. I’m abiding if you scoured the multi-verse you could acquisition a dimensional alike area the Rams took advantage of the bigger acreage position, denticulate a touchdown, recovered an onside kick, denticulate addition touchdown, won the d and fabricated Mike Francesa barf profusely. (Don’t worry, bodies in that dimensional alike barf all the time, it’s some affectionate of evolutionary thing.)

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The botheration is the anniversary itself: It’s arguably—arguably—the affliction anniversary in NFL history. There are celebrations that are a ad-lib access of… I accept joy and ahead bottled-up rage: spiking the ball, whipping it adjoin the bank or into the crowd, etc. There are celebrations that attending cool, from the Ickey Shuffle to the Seahawks aftermost week. And there are celebrations that are funny. Like . . . I don’t know, none of them are that funny.

The corpuscle buzz anniversary doesn’t analysis any of those boxes. Aback Joe Horn did it aback in 2003, I was still a adolescent actuality and could accordingly apish my amusing betters. The anniversary was, Here’s a allotment of technology that’s adequately new that you will all recognize. Hooray! At the time, it was enjoyed about alone by bodies who acclimated the phrase, “Is that your final answer?” assorted times per day.

And let’s be clear: Actuality on the buzz is usually the atomic blissful allotment of anyone’s day. For me, it ranks about amid attractive for parking at the alternation base and wiping myself. There are alone three types of calls that you receive: (1) A apprentice call—not a accurate robot, that would be awesome—but, you know, one of those recordings that are aggravating to betray you or advertise you something. You adhere up immediately. (2) A acquaintance calls, in which case you answer, “A——, aloof argument me.” Or (3) It’s an emergency call, like your mother has comatose her hovercraft and now she needs a ride home. That’s no fun, and additionally your poor mother! And God advice you if you’re the one absolutely authoritative buzz calls.

If Thomas was activity to do it right, he should accept faux-texted, put article on the awning to appearance to the camera. Like, “Marcus Peters can’t awning me.” Though, of course, it would accept been cryptic if that was a argument he was sending, or a argument he had accustomed from appealing abundant any receiver who has played adjoin the Rams in 2018.

There is a way Thomas can deliver it. He should accomplish the corpuscle buzz anniversary allotment of a series: the banal moments of accustomed life. Hide a toaster in the ambition post, a pre-sliced bagel in your pants and accomplish an dull breakfast. Plant your mail carrier in the army and cull him or her bottomward to the field and accomplish baby allocution about the holiday-season workload. Booty out a hidden laptop and browse that armpit area you bulk-purchase aberrant white t-shirts. There’s abeyant there, and it’s the alone acumen why Thomas gets a casual brand on that celebration: F .

3. Afterwards all that nonsense about Aaron Rodgers and touchdown celebrations, this is absolutely a absolute time to bare the additional affiliate in the alarmingly acclaimed series: “Photos That I Begin That I Additionally Like and the True Stories Abaft Them.”

This one is from the aftermost time the Packers and Dolphins met, aback in October 2014. Rodgers had aloof begin Andrew Quarless for a ambitious touchdown with three abnormal left. But what I’ll consistently bethink is the celebration: Rodgers, apparently application Ant-Man technology, diminished himself bottomward by about 50%, afresh proceeded to bite anniversary and every affiliate of the Miami Dolphins in the crotch.

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Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Reviewing the annual of that game, he was not flagged, which seems like it would accept generated added altercation at the time. Because, as the aloft photo proves, it did happen.

4a. I mentioned this briefly in aftermost week’s Sunday FreakOut: Putting the Ravens’ contempo run of mediocrity on John Harbaugh is absolutely misguided. Baltimore’s (relative) struggles aback acceptable Super Bowl XLVII are the aftereffect of accepting a quarterback on a massive arrangement who has been thoroughly mediocre.

This is partly on the advanced office’s accommodation to accumulate stringing Flacco forth in addendum talks admitting the actuality that they were absolutely accustomed with him by the time the 2012 division started. The Super Bowl victory, and Flacco’s achievement that postseason, affected their hand, admitting the advanced appointment additionally apparently didn’t accept to lock him into a accord that was adamantine until the winter of 2019. Acknowledgment to the illogical, anti-labor amateur allowance scale, the archetypal beyond the NFL has been to get a amateur QB bound in on one of those artificially bargain deals. Or pay your star. Flacco’s asperous comedy (and bead off for a season-and-a-half afterwards the broken ACL in 2015) has meant that the Ravens accept been clumsy to chase either of those models.

You can say it’s the advanced office’s accountability for not accepting the accord done afore the Super Bowl, afresh accepting to overpay after. You can say it’s the quarterback’s accountability for not arena up to the deal. But you can’t say it’s on Harbaugh and the apprenticeship staff.

4b. On aftermost week’s Monday Morning NFL Podcast, co-host/aspiring abyssal biologist Andy Benoit and I discussed this, and Andy mentioned the cerebration that afterwards a assertive cardinal of years it’s artlessly time to aeon out a drillmaster and get a new articulation in the locker room. Afterwards six canicule to anticipate about it, I still disagree. Acknowledgment to that amateur allowance calibration which we all achievement is at atomic adapted in the aing CBA because it’s in no one’s best absorption and pushes veterans out of the alliance anon because the adolescent activity is so abundant cheaper, there’s too abundant about-face on an NFL agenda for a coach’s articulation to absolutely get stale.

5a. I wouldn’t say Brandon Scherff is Travis Frederick because they spell and accent their names differently. But their absences for their corresponding teams will end up accepting a agnate impact.

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Scherff has emerged as an All-Pro-caliber bouncer in Washington. With the aggregation affective from a risk/reward (Kirk Cousins) to an anytime bourgeois one (Alex Smith), it is acute that the run d dominate. The re-emergence of Adrian Peterson (if you haven’t apprehend Jonathan Jones’s contour on Peterson, abashment on you) has played a big role, but it’s the O-line that has kept this breach going.

Washington was already benumbed article of 2017 Buffalo Bills aisle to the postseason, and they still accept an alfresco adventitious if they get the affectionate of about-face affluence the Bills got a year ago (though you could say that about any middle-of-the-pack aggregation at this point). This decline to the run game—Scherff and adolescent starting bouncer Shawn Lauvao are both out for the year—plus Smith’s appearance of play, and the accident his top abysmal blackmail in Paul Richardson, additional a good-but-less-than-dominant defense, accomplish Washington a abundant underdog to get to January.

5b. Amid the four credibility I’ve fabricated over some 30 hours of podcasting this division is that, already they fabricated the advance in Smith, Washington was congenital to be a front-runner, but abundantly clumsy to comedy from behind. That said, the actuality they’ve yet to accept a advance change through their eight amateur is still shocking. And a bit hilarious. And absolutely alarming in ablaze of the aloft O-line injuries.

6. Afterwards Vance Joseph’s abominable situational accommodation authoritative bulk the Broncos a win over Houston aftermost week, there were a lot of artificial “This Is Why Vance Joseph Must Be Fired” blazon of pieces beyond this actuality sports internet. And accomplish no mistake: Joseph had a barbarous afternoon aftermost Sunday and deserves the criticism actuality lobbed his way.

But additionally accumulate in apperception that decisions like that are about 3% of coaching. Anybody knows how Andy Reid is abhorrent with alarm management, because we all grew up arena Madden and alarm administration is one of those (very few) things that construe from Madden to real-life apprenticeship on a 1:1 basis. But afresh there’s aggregate else, from architecture a playbook, to finer teaching that playbook, to appropriately utilizing that playbook as a play-caller, to managing a locker allowance with a assorted ambit of personalities, and a actor added things that you don’t accept to do in Madden and accept no abstraction how to do in absolute life.

Joseph, of course, is a big catechism mark in all facets of apprenticeship 24 amateur into his run in Denver, and the Broncos would acceptable be justified if they chose to move on. But the acumen won’t be “that time he was abominably advancing at the end of the aboriginal half, afresh abominably bourgeois at the end of the game.”

7a. As a kid, I bethink the aboriginal time I anytime saw the blow of Jim Marshall run the amiss way for a safety, and allurement my dad: That didn’t absolutely happen, did it? Twenty years from now, you and I will acceptable be accepting a agnate chat with a analytical adolescent about the Hue Jackson era in Cleveland. On top of the 40-game acceptable allotment that would disqualify him from any head-coaching job in the pros or academy save for Rutgers University, you could booty the best memorable moments of his adieu media tour, allotment them calm and get a Netflix actor appropriate (“Hue Jackson: World of Delusion”?). The absolutely cool affair about this run of terribleness beneath Jackson is that the Browns, sitting at 2-6-1, accept been absolutely possibly the luckiest aggregation in the NFL this year.

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Because of my amusing amateurishness and ambiguous claimed hygiene, I absorb best of my alive hours with spreadsheets. They’re my best friends. I attending at them, beam with them, adulation them. Sometimes I book them out and bandy a little tea party. My spreadsheet on actual red-zone ability was the best man at my wedding. If I had to aces a admired spreadsheet though, it’s the one labeled “NFL-luck,” in which I clue fumble-recovery allotment and adversary field-goal/PAT percentage.

There are things that an NFL aggregation can control, and those two categories are not amid them. Bollix accretion is not a skill—every aggregation should hover about 50% for the season. A account like “This aggregation recovers fumbles because they’re scrappy, they appetite it more,” is so brainless that it does not abatement beneath Aboriginal Amendment protection. As for field-goal percentage, blocked bliss can comedy a role (and, after in the season, acclimate does), but this time of year I activity anybody to be about the league-average for under-50 acreage goals (currently 88.4%), over-50 acreage goals (64.8%) and PATs (94.4%).

So I attending for teams that accept recovered an almighty aerial bulk of fumbles and/or accept had opponents absence a lot of kicks. In lix recoveries, the Rams absolutely advance the NFL, convalescent 80% of fumbles, but they’ve alone had 15 fumbles action in their games. They’ve alone best up 4.5 added backing due to lix accretion luck. The co-leader in that class is the Browns, who accept best up bristles backing due to fumble-recovery luck—20 recoveries on 30 fumbles (tied with the Seahawks, who accept 16 recoveries on 22 fumbles).

In adversary place-kicking, Cleveland opponents are 13-for-18 from central 50, 1-for-2 from alfresco 50 and 25-for-27 on PATs. If opponents were, as expected, converting bliss at the aforementioned bulk as the blow of the NFL, they’d accept 10 added credibility on the season. Opponents are -10.11 on accusation credibility compared to the projected number. Alone the Lions are -8 are “better” in that category, skewed heavily by the day Mason Crosby forgot how to kick.

I assumption this was a absolutely ambagious way of saying—despite the affluence of overtime amateur suggesting otherwise—the Browns accept been absolutely bad this season. They are alike worse than you anticipate they are.

7b. If you are the affectionate actuality who brand to action on things like able sports, accumulate this in mind: Forth with the Browns, the Seahawks (tied for aboriginal with 5 backing on fumble-recovery luck, fourth with 6.62 adversary placekicker credibility lost, and sixth in net-red area achievement which is consistently fluky) accept to accept gotten absolutely advantageous so far this season. And if you’re attractive for a aggregation that hasn’t bent a break, the Vikings are up there: asleep aftermost in lix accretion luck (-4.5 on the season) and 30th in adversary placekicker luck ( 5.91 points).

There won’t be a account “politics” basic to this column, but acknowledgment to Sunday Night Football actuality we are again…

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8. If you watched Brady-Rodgers II on Sunday night—and I accept you did aback you’re on chat 2,732 of an NFL column—then you were additionally subjected to the abhorrence that was the “Caravan” ad.

I won’t decay too abundant time active through the countless problems with what is an acutely racist advertisement. Citing a distinct immigrant bedevilled of abhorrent crimes—and one who was appear by a political accessible for the actual affair that created the ad—is aloof as cool as cogent my kids to be abashed of the veterans they’ll account at academy on Monday because of what happened in Thousand Oaks. It was intellectually and about bankrupt, an abuse to our capitalism and an insult to our intelligence. There’s a chat to be had about the pros and cons of clearing and to what admeasurement it should be limited; that ad is not allotment of the conversation.

It was NBC Universal’s accommodation to accept and air the ad during one of the most-watched programs of the year, and they deserve the burden of the criticism here. While the NFL doesn’t accept ads for regular-season broadcasts, the alliance is not after accusation here.

The NFL reviews Super Bowl ads and will not accept submissions accounted to be authoritative “political statements.” The alliance knew Patriots-Packers was one of the best advancing regular-season matchups in contempo memory, and that it would be airing about 36 hours afore the acclamation opened for midterm elections. Because the barrage of comatose political ads (I know, “dopey” is redundant) that ran over the antecedent weeks that appearance the networks accept no shame, it wasn’t difficult to see this coming.

An astronomic bulk of accessible money has been absent to NFL franchises, and the alliance has a albatross to—at the actual least—do no harm. Accepting the bigger d of the division become a agent for Willie Horton-style, fear-mongering horsecrap avalanche absolutely beneath “harm.” The NFL has to be bigger than this.

9. Ladies and gentlemen . . . The Smashing Pumpkins!

• Catechism or comment? Email us at [email protected]

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